tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 4399 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record AVL 06:00 EWR 08:08 13% 10% 2.8% 87%
UA 4511 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record AVL 16:37 EWR 18:40 35% 27% 15.6% 65%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → AVL 06:30 → ATL 07:31DL 2712 2h 34m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → EWR 12:21DL 2401 5h 51m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → AVL 08:30 → ATL 09:33DL 2853 2h 29m Atlanta ATL 12:02 → EWR 14:16DL 2312 5h 46m 93% 72%
DeltaDetails → AVL 14:06 → ATL 15:11DL 1182 3h 24m Atlanta ATL 18:35 → EWR 20:54DL 2498 6h 48m 98% 69%
UnitedDetails → AVL 17:43 → ORD 19:05UA 4189 · flown by GoJet 2h 25m Chicago ORD 21:30 → EWR 00:53 +1UA 1209 7h 10m 87% 62%
UnitedDetails → AVL 10:41 → ORD 11:47UA 4652 · flown by SkyWest 3h 30m Chicago ORD 15:17 → EWR 18:29UA 1236 7h 48m 100% 62%
AmericanDetails → AVL 14:44 → CLT 15:58AA 6112 · flown by Piedmont 2h 50m Charlotte CLT 18:48 → EWR 20:52AA 997 6h 08m 96% 60%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → AVL 17:43 → ORD 19:05UA 4189 · flown by GoJet 1h 02m Chicago ORD 20:07 → EWR 23:39UA 759 5h 56m 63% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON