Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, MQ 3560 at 07:05, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


MQ 3560 Envoy	AVL 07:05	MIA 09:15	18%	5%	1.0%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	AVL 06:30 → ATL 07:31DL 2712	1h 32m Atlanta	ATL 09:03 → MIA 11:03DL 1510	4h 33m	94%	73%
Delta Details →	AVL 08:30 → ATL 09:33DL 2853	1h 32m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → MIA 13:07DL 1332	4h 37m	90%	67%
American Details →	AVL 10:41 → DCA 12:31AA 5213 · flown by PSA	2h 28m Washington	DCA 14:59 → MIA 17:49AA 1299	7h 08m	98%	65%
Delta Details →	AVL 14:06 → ATL 15:11DL 1182	2h 37m Atlanta	ATL 17:48 → MIA 19:44DL 719	5h 38m	96%	63%
American Details →	AVL 13:09 → LGA 15:14AA 4704 · flown by Republic	3h 21m New York	LGA 18:35 → MIA 21:49AA 3088	8h 40m	100%	63%
American Details →	AVL 13:44 → CLT 14:48AA 5899 · flown by Piedmont	3h 47m Charlotte	CLT 18:35 → MIA 20:43AA 400	6h 59m	96%	55%
American Details →	AVL 11:32 → ORD 12:29AA 3963 · flown by Envoy	2h 01m Chicago	ORD 14:30 → MIA 18:49AA 1431	7h 17m	97%	55%
American Details →	AVL 16:44 → DFW 18:20AA 569	1h 43m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:03 → MIA 00:03 +1AA 2090	7h 19m	89%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON