Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, DL 2181 at 13:14, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 2181 Delta Flight history →	AVL 13:14	MSP 14:45	11%	4%	1.2%	76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Asheville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	AVL 06:30 → ATL 07:31DL 2712	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 09:55 → MSP 11:31DL 2090	6h 01m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	AVL 12:54 → BOS 15:27DL 5778 · flown by Republic	2h 28m Boston	BOS 17:55 → MSP 20:21DL 1098	8h 27m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	AVL 12:20 → LGA 14:24DL 5025 · flown by Endeavor	3h 41m New York	LGA 18:05 → MSP 20:44DL 2313	9h 24m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	AVL 08:30 → ATL 09:33DL 2853	2h 44m Atlanta	ATL 12:17 → MSP 13:50DL 2901	6h 20m	94%	83%
American Details →	AVL 08:52 → CLT 10:14AA 6033 · flown by Piedmont	2h 23m Charlotte	CLT 12:37 → MSP 14:23AA 1671	6h 31m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	AVL 14:06 → ATL 15:11DL 1182	3h 55m Atlanta	ATL 19:06 → MSP 20:46DL 2654	7h 40m	99%	81%
American Details →	AVL 11:32 → ORD 12:29AA 3963 · flown by Envoy	3h 28m Chicago	ORD 15:57 → MSP 17:53AA 2472	7h 21m	100%	70%
United Details →	AVL 10:41 → ORD 11:47UA 4652 · flown by SkyWest	2h 20m Chicago	ORD 14:07 → MSP 15:33UA 2298	5h 52m	96%	69%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	AVL 17:43 → ORD 19:05UA 4189 · flown by GoJet	52m Chicago	ORD 19:57 → MSP 21:41UA 2005	4h 58m	62%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON