Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 17–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 5833 AVL 07:02 → ORD 08:00 · 17% chance 15+ min late Riskiest YX 4737 AVL 18:33 → ORD 19:44 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OO 5833 SkyWest	AVL 07:02	ORD 08:00	17%	6%	1.6%	no record
UA 4652 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	AVL 10:41	ORD 11:47	19%	7%	1.6%	93%worse than usual
AA 3963 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	AVL 11:32	ORD 12:29	23%	5%	2.0%	82%
YX 4737 Republic	AVL 18:33	ORD 19:44	24%	7%	2.0%	no record
UA 4189 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	AVL 17:43	ORD 19:05	37%	24%	4.9%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON