tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
PT 5853 Piedmont AVL 12:01 PHL 13:56 15% 5% 2.2% no record
PT 5809 Piedmont AVL 18:44 PHL 20:42 17% 8% 2.3% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → AVL 06:30 → ATL 07:31DL 2712 2h 39m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → PHL 12:15DL 2279 5h 45m 97% 81%
DeltaDetails → AVL 12:54 → BOS 15:27DL 5778 · flown by Republic 1h 53m Boston BOS 17:20 → PHL 19:15DL 5714 · flown by Republic 6h 21m 100% 78%
DeltaDetails → AVL 08:30 → ATL 09:33DL 2853 2h 42m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → PHL 14:15DL 2131 5h 45m 94% 77%
DeltaDetails → AVL 14:06 → ATL 15:11DL 1182 2h 34m Atlanta ATL 17:45 → PHL 19:51DL 1329 5h 45m 96% 72%
UnitedDetails → AVL 10:41 → ORD 11:47UA 4652 · flown by SkyWest 2h 43m Chicago ORD 14:30 → PHL 17:53UA 2430 7h 12m 96% 71%
AmericanDetails → AVL 11:32 → ORD 12:29AA 3963 · flown by Envoy 2h 31m Chicago ORD 15:00 → PHL 18:23AA 2840 6h 51m 98% 67%
AmericanDetails → AVL 13:44 → CLT 14:48AA 5899 · flown by Piedmont 3h 17m Charlotte CLT 18:05 → PHL 20:01AA 423 6h 17m 96% 66%
AmericanDetails → AVL 16:44 → DFW 18:20AA 569 1h 59m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:19 → PHL 00:35 +1AA 2542 7h 51m 89% 49%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → AVL 11:32 → ORD 12:29AA 3963 · flown by Envoy 48m Chicago ORD 13:17 → PHL 16:42AA 830 5h 10m 58% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON