Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 686 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17%.

Safest bet that day UA 686 SFO 07:05 → IAH 13:11 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest UA 2831 SFO 14:30 → IAH 20:30 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 686 United Flight history →	SFO 07:05	IAH 13:11	6%	3%	0.6%	95%
WN 3809 Southwest	SJC 07:28	HOU 13:17	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 2168 United Flight history →	SFO 05:00	IAH 10:55	6%	2%	0.6%	97%
UA 2498 United Flight history →	SFO 08:55	IAH 15:07	10%	3%	0.6%	89%
UA 604 United Flight history →	SFO 00:45	IAH 06:34	12%	3%	0.6%	83%
WN 1051 Southwest	OAK 08:07	HOU 13:57	13%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 505 United Flight history →	SFO 00:03	IAH 05:52	13%	3%	0.6%	82%
UA 1649 United	SFO 17:17	IAH 23:07	17%	7%	0.6%	no record
UA 2305 United Flight history →	SFO 16:40	IAH 22:52	17%	7%	0.6%	85%
UA 1387 United Flight history →	SFO 12:15	IAH 18:27	20%	7%	0.6%	78%
UA 1259 United Flight history →	SFO 10:50	IAH 16:52	20%	6%	0.6%	61%
UA 2831 United	SFO 14:30	IAH 20:30	20%	7%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


American Details →	SFO 08:07 → DFW 13:35AA 304	57m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:32 → IAH 15:50AA 9748	5h 43m	80%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON