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Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 101 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 2492 at 06:13 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–37%.

Safest bet that day WN 2492 SJC 06:13 → LAX 07:31 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2166 SFO 18:19 → LAX 19:43 · 37% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
WN 2492 Southwest SJC 06:13 LAX 07:31 3% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 449 Southwest Flight history → OAK 06:43 ONT 08:06 3% 1% 0.6% 31%
WN 1946 Southwest OAK 06:26 LAX 07:49 3% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 758 Southwest SJC 06:58 LGB 08:31 3% 2% 0.5% no record
WN 1160 Southwest SFO 06:03 LAX 07:27 3% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 384 Southwest SJC 07:23 BUR 08:46 3% 1% 1.0% no record
WN 3152 Southwest OAK 06:37 BUR 08:01 4% 1% 1.2% no record
WN 2135 Southwest OAK 07:37 SNA 09:16 4% 1% 0.7% no record
WN 309 Southwest OAK 07:37 LGB 09:16 4% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 3846 Southwest SJC 08:23 SNA 10:01 4% 1% 0.6% no record
WN 2121 Southwest SJC 09:28 ONT 11:00 5% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 472 Southwest SJC 09:08 BUR 10:31 5% 2% 1.1% no record
WN 3153 Southwest OAK 08:42 BUR 10:06 6% 1% 1.2% no record
WN 2119 Southwest OAK 10:57 LGB 12:25 7% 2% 0.6% no record
DL 1362 Delta SJC 06:58 LAX 08:27 7% 3% 1.2% no record
DL 1598 Delta Flight history → SFO 07:00 LAX 08:30 8% 2% 0.8% 94%
WN 2218 Southwest OAK 09:42 LAX 11:12 8% 3% 0.6% no record
WN 2129 Southwest SJC 11:03 LGB 12:36 8% 3% 0.5% no record
DL 8948 Delta SJC 22:54 LAX 00:15 8% 5% 1.1% no record
WN 3328 Southwest SJC 10:08 SNA 11:46 8% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 3797 Southwest SJC 11:38 BUR 13:01 8% 3% 1.0% no record
WN 868 Southwest OAK 10:47 SNA 12:31 8% 2% 0.6% no record
WN 2112 Southwest SJC 11:03 LAX 12:32 9% 3% 0.6% no record
WN 3826 Southwest SJC 12:23 ONT 13:55 9% 4% 0.5% no record
DL 1380 Delta SJC 11:40 LAX 13:01 9% 4% 1.2% no record
DL 1359 Delta SJC 18:10 LAX 19:30 9% 5% 1.1% no record
AS 3440 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 07:12 SNA 08:51 9% 2% 0.8% 92%
WN 411 Southwest SJC 13:03 LAX 14:32 9% 3% 0.6% no record
DL 3883 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → SJC 20:25 LAX 22:00 9% 6% 0.6% 92%
DL 3842 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → SJC 14:59 LAX 16:24 9% 4% 0.5% 92%
WN 3849 Southwest SJC 12:33 SNA 14:11 9% 2% 0.6% no record
UA 589 United Flight history → SFO 19:27 SNA 21:12 10% 4% 0.6% 89%
WN 2039 Southwest OAK 15:57 LGB 17:36 10% 3% 0.6% no record
UA 2363 United Flight history → SFO 08:45 BUR 10:09 10% 4% 0.6% 84%
WN 854 Southwest OAK 13:47 SNA 15:31 11% 3% 0.6% no record
WN 3799 Southwest SJC 17:08 BUR 18:31 11% 6% 0.9% no record
WN 470 Southwest SJC 17:13 SNA 18:51 11% 3% 0.6% no record
OO 3849 SkyWest SJC 16:14 LAX 17:39 11% 5% 0.6% no record
UA 1260 United Flight history → SFO 06:59 LAX 08:35 11% 3% 0.6% 89%
WN 2094 Southwest SJC 15:28 BUR 16:51 11% 4% 0.9% no record
WN 3851 Southwest SJC 15:43 SNA 17:16 11% 3% 0.6% no record
WN 3154 Southwest OAK 11:32 BUR 12:56 11% 3% 1.1% no record
WN 464 Southwest OAK 17:37 SNA 19:16 12% 4% 0.6% no record
OO 5405 SkyWest SFO 07:42 SNA 09:14 12% 3% 0.8% no record
WN 2041 Southwest SJC 16:08 LGB 17:41 12% 5% 0.5% no record
WN 1467 Southwest OAK 14:47 LAX 16:22 12% 5% 0.6% no record
DL 1421 Delta Flight history → SFO 09:20 LAX 10:53 13% 4% 0.8% 91%
AA 1097 American Flight history → SFO 07:05 LAX 08:42 13% 3% 0.6% 79%
WN 3157 Southwest OAK 16:12 BUR 17:36 14% 5% 1.0% no record
WN 714 Southwest OAK 13:37 BUR 15:01 14% 4% 1.0% no record
OO 5763 SkyWest SFO 08:52 ONT 10:39 14% 8% 0.8% no record
WN 426 Southwest SJC 16:33 ONT 18:05 14% 7% 0.5% no record
WN 4940 Southwest SJC 18:14 LAX 19:34 15% 5% 0.5% no record
WN 1151 Southwest OAK 16:57 ONT 18:30 15% 7% 0.5% no record
WN 3158 Southwest OAK 17:52 BUR 19:16 16% 6% 1.0% no record
AS 3450 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 09:28 SNA 11:11 16% 5% 0.8% 79%
UA 2441 United Flight history → SFO 12:25 SNA 14:09 17% 7% 0.6% 89%
UA 1457 United SFO 08:58 LAX 10:35 17% 4% 0.6% no record
WN 2620 Southwest OAK 18:44 LAX 20:09 17% 7% 0.6% no record
UA 643 United Flight history → SFO 10:10 SNA 11:50 18% 6% 0.6% 82%
OO 6274 SkyWest SFO 09:39 LAX 11:17 18% 6% 0.7% no record
UA 2001 United SFO 18:36 BUR 19:58 18% 8% 0.6% no record
UA 552 United Flight history → SFO 21:13 ONT 22:41 19% 8% 0.5% 83%
F9 3308 Frontier Flight history → SFO 09:12 LAX 10:44 19% 5% 1.0% 70%
UA 2179 United Flight history → SFO 22:35 LAX 00:17 20% 8% 0.5% 72%
OO 5571 SkyWest SFO 13:51 ONT 15:38 20% 12% 0.7% no record
OO 5597 SkyWest SFO 16:51 SNA 18:46 20% 7% 0.8% no record
UA 1079 United SFO 21:27 LAX 22:49 20% 7% 0.5% no record
AS 340 Alaska SFO 07:25 LAX 08:44 20% 2% 0.7% no record
DL 1559 Delta Flight history → SFO 17:59 LAX 19:24 21% 8% 0.8% 67%
OO 6276 SkyWest SFO 16:26 LAX 18:04 21% 8% 0.7% no record
UA 2409 United Flight history → SFO 19:44 LAX 21:08 21% 7% 0.5% 68%
UA 2610 United Flight history → SFO 13:55 LAX 15:35 21% 6% 0.6% 78%
DL 2114 Delta SFO 16:49 LAX 18:14 21% 8% 0.7% no record
OO 6277 SkyWest SFO 11:57 LAX 13:39 22% 8% 0.7% no record
AS 3492 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 15:53 SNA 17:32 22% 5% 0.9% 71%
UA 5440 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 13:39 SNA 15:29 22% 6% 0.8% 80%
UA 393 United SFO 16:22 ONT 17:51 22% 9% 0.5% no record
AS 3494 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 15:48 SNA 17:26 22% 5% 0.9% 85%
UA 1506 United Flight history → SFO 12:15 LAX 13:55 23% 7% 0.6% 71%
UA 2764 United Flight history → SFO 16:15 BUR 17:42 23% 9% 0.6% 56%
AS 1329 Alaska Flight history → SFO 08:30 LAX 10:07 23% 3% 0.7% 64%
DL 2112 Delta SFO 11:59 LAX 13:24 23% 8% 0.8% no record
UA 626 United Flight history → SFO 13:50 BUR 15:17 24% 9% 0.6% 69%
UA 2115 United Flight history → SFO 10:23 BUR 11:49 24% 7% 0.6% 81%
UA 1799 United SFO 18:31 LAX 19:53 24% 7% 0.5% no record
UA 1754 United Flight history → SFO 16:17 LAX 17:51 25% 8% 0.5% 73%
AS 269 Alaska SFO 17:02 SNA 18:23 26% 6% 0.7% no record
OO 3048 SkyWest SFO 10:30 SNA 12:12 26% 7% 0.8% no record
DL 689 Delta SFO 14:20 LAX 15:43 27% 7% 0.8% no record
WN 4311 Southwest SFO 10:47 BUR 12:11 27% 9% 3.5% no record
AA 6428 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → SFO 10:09 LAX 11:49 27% 9% 0.7% 59%
OO 3210 SkyWest SFO 11:43 SNA 13:22 27% 6% 0.8% no record
UA 1164 United Flight history → SFO 10:32 LAX 12:04 27% 7% 0.6% 75%
AA 1022 American SFO 13:32 LAX 15:04 28% 8% 0.6% no record
OO 249 SkyWest SFO 10:33 LAX 12:02 28% 8% 0.7% no record
WN 3780 Southwest SFO 15:05 LAX 16:28 29% 8% 0.5% no record
AS 1543 Alaska SFO 17:06 LAX 18:22 29% 7% 0.6% no record
WN 4312 Southwest SFO 17:22 BUR 18:41 31% 12% 2.6% no record
AS 753 Alaska SFO 13:23 LAX 14:44 32% 6% 0.7% no record
WN 2166 Southwest SFO 18:19 LAX 19:43 37% 10% 0.5% no record
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON