Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 14–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 1947 SFO 00:03 → MCO 08:29 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AS 1656 SFO 08:21 → MCO 16:31 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1947 United Flight history →	SFO 00:03	MCO 08:29	14%	3%	3.8%	93%
UA 583 United Flight history →	SFO 08:43	MCO 17:11	15%	4%	1.6%	90%
AS 1656 Alaska	SFO 08:21	MCO 16:31	22%	5%	2.2%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	SJC 06:21 → LAS 07:50WN 1091	1h 01m Las Vegas	LAS 08:51 → MCO 16:21WN 2332	7h 00m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	SFO 00:35 → MSP 06:09DL 2789	51m Minneapolis	MSP 07:00 → MCO 11:13DL 1730	7h 38m	89%	76%
Delta Details →	SFO 05:50 → SLC 08:40DL 1331	55m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:35 → MCO 16:13DL 2032	7h 23m	95%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON