Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 15 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 2861 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–17%.

Safest bet that day UA 2861 SFO 06:45 → IAD 15:10 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3125 SFO 11:17 → BWI 19:30 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2861 United	SFO 06:45	IAD 15:10	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 705 United Flight history →	SFO 21:18	IAD 05:15	9%	3%	0.6%	100%
UA 2111 United Flight history →	SFO 00:02	IAD 07:42	10%	2%	0.6%	87%
UA 2664 United Flight history →	SFO 09:33	BWI 17:57	10%	3%	0.6%	91%
WN 3495 Southwest	SJC 09:28	BWI 17:45	11%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 599 United	SFO 08:15	IAD 16:20	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1678 United Flight history →	SFO 08:20	DCA 16:47	13%	3%	0.6%	90%
UA 2837 United Flight history →	SFO 22:35	IAD 06:58	16%	4%	0.6%	67%
AS 8 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 09:39	DCA 17:59	17%	5%	0.6%	78%
UA 1453 United Flight history →	SFO 16:34	IAD 00:55	17%	5%	0.6%	87%
UA 336 United Flight history →	SFO 10:50	IAD 19:11	18%	5%	0.6%	78%
UA 755 United Flight history →	SFO 12:48	IAD 21:11	18%	6%	0.6%	78%
UA 1791 United Flight history →	SFO 13:15	IAD 21:25	19%	6%	0.6%	76%
UA 2386 United Flight history →	SFO 14:18	DCA 22:30	21%	7%	0.6%	71%
WN 3125 Southwest	SFO 11:17	BWI 19:30	26%	6%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SFO 00:35 → MSP 06:09DL 2789	1h 27m Minneapolis	MSP 07:36 → DCA 11:00DL 2958	7h 25m	97%	90%
United Details →	SFO 05:00 → DEN 08:35UA 1479	1h 11m Denver	DEN 09:46 → BWI 15:17UA 1362	7h 17m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	SJC 09:45 → SLC 12:41DL 4026 · flown by SkyWest	1h 04m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:45 → IAD 19:44DL 847	6h 59m	93%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON