Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 8–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2933 BDL 06:00 → ATL 08:27 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest DL 2739 BDL 16:30 → ATL 19:13 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2933 Delta Flight history →	BDL 06:00	ATL 08:27	8%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 2233 Delta Flight history →	BDL 07:30	ATL 09:56	10%	2%	0.6%	90%
DL 1082 Delta Flight history →	BDL 13:58	ATL 16:30	13%	3%	0.6%	84%
DL 2951 Delta Flight history →	BDL 12:24	ATL 14:53	14%	3%	0.7%	84%
DL 2739 Delta Flight history →	BDL 16:30	ATL 19:13	15%	5%	1.7%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON