tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 1648 at 12:27, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1648 Southwest BDL 12:27 BNA 14:08 11% 3% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Hartford). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BDL 07:35 → MSP 09:29DL 1330 3h 33m Minneapolis MSP 13:02 → BNA 15:10DL 2101 8h 35m 100% 89%
UnitedDetails → BDL 06:00 → IAD 07:26UA 635 1h 03m Dulles IAD 08:29 → BNA 09:34UA 1366 4h 34m 96% 88%
DeltaDetails → BDL 06:00 → ATL 08:27DL 2933 2h 54m Atlanta ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867 6h 30m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → BDL 05:30 → DTW 07:25DL 2964 1h 19m Detroit DTW 08:44 → BNA 09:25DL 2682 4h 55m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → BDL 15:10 → MSP 17:09DL 2007 3h 11m Minneapolis MSP 20:20 → BNA 22:26DL 1144 8h 16m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → BDL 07:30 → ATL 09:56DL 2233 3h 58m Atlanta ATL 13:54 → BNA 14:03DL 3159 7h 33m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → BDL 06:09 → ORD 07:54UA 2672 2h 43m Chicago ORD 10:37 → BNA 12:29UA 2414 7h 20m 99% 81%
AmericanDetails → BDL 07:16 → CLT 09:24AA 3182 2h 48m Charlotte CLT 12:12 → BNA 12:39AA 2409 6h 23m 97% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
JetBlueDetails → BDL 08:00 → FLL 11:10B6 959 55m Fort Lauderdale FLL 12:05 → BNA 13:32B6 681 6h 32m 68% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON