Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 13–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 364 BDL 08:00 → DEN 10:23 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest WN 1663 BDL 14:37 → DEN 17:03 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 364 United Flight history →	BDL 08:00	DEN 10:23	13%	2%	0.6%	94%
UA 2239 United Flight history →	BDL 15:30	DEN 17:58	18%	4%	0.6%	78%
WN 1663 Southwest	BDL 14:37	DEN 17:03	18%	3%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BDL 05:30 → DTW 07:25DL 2964	1h 15m Detroit	DTW 08:40 → DEN 09:47DL 1113	6h 17m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	BDL 07:35 → MSP 09:29DL 1330	1h 31m Minneapolis	MSP 11:00 → DEN 12:05DL 2927	6h 30m	97%	85%
United Details →	BDL 06:00 → IAD 07:26UA 635	48m Dulles	IAD 08:14 → DEN 10:12UA 797	6h 12m	88%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON