Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: AA 2729 at 06:04 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 23%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 2729 American Flight history →	BDL 06:04	DFW 08:59	13%	3%	1.0%	86%
AA 1083 American	BDL 12:52	DFW 15:43	23%	6%	1.0%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h behind Hartford). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BDL 07:35 → MSP 09:29DL 1330	1h 31m Minneapolis	MSP 11:00 → DFW 13:31DL 2970	6h 56m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	BDL 06:00 → ATL 08:27DL 2933	2h 54m Atlanta	ATL 11:21 → DFW 12:37DL 414	7h 37m	99%	80%
United Details →	BDL 06:09 → ORD 07:54UA 2672	2h 35m Chicago	ORD 10:29 → DFW 13:13UA 441	8h 04m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	BDL 05:30 → DTW 07:25DL 2964	1h 10m Detroit	DTW 08:35 → DFW 10:24DL 2746	5h 54m	96%	79%
American Details →	BDL 05:00 → MIA 08:13AA 412	1h 20m Miami	MIA 09:33 → DFW 11:40AA 893	7h 40m	97%	75%
United Details →	BDL 08:00 → DEN 10:23UA 364	3h 32m Denver	DEN 13:55 → DFW 17:01UA 578	10h 01m	99%	75%
United Details →	BDL 08:20 → IAH 11:10UA 1361	3h 50m Houston	IAH 15:00 → DFW 16:30UA 1388	9h 10m	99%	75%
American Details →	BDL 07:16 → CLT 09:24AA 3182	1h 53m Charlotte	CLT 11:17 → DFW 13:02AA 2747	6h 46m	96%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	BDL 05:00 → MIA 08:13AA 412	47m Miami	MIA 09:00 → DFW 11:12AA 1227	7h 12m	67%	52%
United Details →	BDL 16:55 → ORD 18:44UA 2627	1h 06m Chicago	ORD 19:50 → DFW 22:36UA 1673	6h 41m	74%	49%
American Details →	BDL 13:04 → ORD 14:39AA 1408	1h 11m Chicago	ORD 15:50 → DFW 18:27AA 2531	6h 23m	69%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON