Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, UA 1361 at 08:20, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 1361 United Flight history →	BDL 08:20	IAH 11:10	10%	3%	0.6%	87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Hartford). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	BDL 10:21 → IAD 11:58UA 1786	3h 02m Dulles	IAD 15:00 → IAH 17:23UA 2607	8h 02m	100%	85%
United Details →	BDL 06:00 → IAD 07:26UA 635	1h 14m Dulles	IAD 08:40 → IAH 10:59UA 1524	5h 59m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	BDL 07:35 → MSP 09:29DL 1330	1h 36m Minneapolis	MSP 11:05 → IAH 13:58DL 2673	7h 23m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	BDL 05:30 → DTW 07:25DL 2964	1h 15m Detroit	DTW 08:40 → IAH 10:37DL 1043	6h 07m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	BDL 12:24 → ATL 14:53DL 2951	4h 00m Atlanta	ATL 18:53 → IAH 20:04DL 2327	8h 40m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	BDL 15:10 → MSP 17:09DL 2007	1h 31m Minneapolis	MSP 18:40 → IAH 21:35DL 2683	7h 25m	95%	81%
Delta Details →	BDL 06:00 → ATL 08:27DL 2933	4h 00m Atlanta	ATL 12:27 → IAH 13:33DL 1572	8h 33m	99%	80%
United Details →	BDL 08:00 → DEN 10:23UA 364	3h 07m Denver	DEN 13:30 → IAH 17:04UA 1829	10h 04m	98%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	BDL 15:33 → CLT 17:41AA 2741	1h 00m Charlotte	CLT 18:41 → IAH 20:33AA 2935	6h 00m	73%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON