Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1656 at 06:35 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 1656 BDL 06:35 → MCO 09:24 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 437 BDL 15:42 → MCO 18:41 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1656 Southwest	BDL 06:35	MCO 09:24	10%	1%	4.7%	no record
MX 1677 Breeze	BDL 05:54	MCO 08:46	13%	3%	4.7%	no record
B6 737 JetBlue Flight history →	BDL 10:09	MCO 13:06	19%	5%	10.4%	86%
F9 2769 Frontier Flight history →	BDL 18:03	MCO 21:16	20%	9%	2.1%	74%
WN 445 Southwest	BDL 17:22	MCO 20:26	24%	6%	1.4%	no record
B6 437 JetBlue	BDL 15:42	MCO 18:41	30%	11%	1.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON