Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 4336 Southwest	BDL 08:07	MDW 09:40	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 4143 Southwest	BDL 16:17	MDW 17:50	11%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Hartford). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BDL 06:00 → ATL 08:27DL 2933	1h 13m Atlanta	ATL 09:40 → MDW 10:42DL 2417	5h 42m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	BDL 16:30 → ATL 19:13DL 2739	2h 02m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076	6h 45m	95%	76%
Delta Details →	BDL 05:30 → DTW 07:25DL 2964	1h 25m Detroit	DTW 08:50 → MDW 09:14DL 4684 · flown by Endeavor	4h 44m	98%	72%
Delta Details →	BDL 13:15 → DTW 15:11DL 2163	2h 56m Detroit	DTW 18:07 → MDW 18:25DL 4677 · flown by Endeavor	6h 14m	98%	58%
Delta Details →	BDL 07:35 → MSP 09:29DL 1330	2h 01m Minneapolis	MSP 11:30 → MDW 13:09DL 4820 · flown by Endeavor	6h 34m	98%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON