tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AA 412 at 05:00, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 412 American Flight history → BDL 05:00 MIA 08:13 12% 3% 1.1% 95%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → BDL 06:00 → IAD 07:26UA 635 1h 19m Dulles IAD 08:45 → MIA 11:35UA 1073 5h 35m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → BDL 05:30 → DTW 07:25DL 2964 1h 57m Detroit DTW 09:22 → MIA 12:28DL 1468 6h 58m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → BDL 15:10 → MSP 17:09DL 2007 1h 33m Minneapolis MSP 18:42 → MIA 23:26DL 2187 8h 16m 95% 78%
DeltaDetails → BDL 06:00 → ATL 08:27DL 2933 2h 38m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → MIA 13:07DL 1332 7h 07m 99% 75%
AmericanDetails → BDL 14:06 → DCA 15:44AA 5059 · flown by PSA 3h 24m Washington DCA 19:08 → MIA 21:58AA 582 7h 52m 99% 71%
DeltaDetails → BDL 07:30 → ATL 09:56DL 2233 3h 39m Atlanta ATL 13:35 → MIA 15:43DL 1323 8h 13m 99% 70%
AmericanDetails → BDL 19:17 → PHL 20:47AA 5811 · flown by Piedmont 1h 08m Philadelphia PHL 21:55 → MIA 00:52 +1AA 2936 5h 35m 97% 69%
UnitedDetails → BDL 06:09 → ORD 07:54UA 2672 2h 39m Chicago ORD 10:33 → MIA 14:57UA 1620 8h 48m 99% 67%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → BDL 15:33 → CLT 17:41AA 2741 54m Charlotte CLT 18:35 → MIA 20:43AA 400 5h 10m 72% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON