Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 2672 at 06:09 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–31%.

Safest bet that day UA 2672 BDL 06:09 → ORD 07:54 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 1408 BDL 13:04 → ORD 14:39 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 43% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2672 United Flight history →	BDL 06:09	ORD 07:54	11%	2%	0.6%	90%
AA 2163 American Flight history →	BDL 07:15	ORD 09:05	15%	4%	1.0%	88%
UA 1456 United	BDL 09:37	ORD 11:22	19%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 378 United Flight history →	BDL 12:12	ORD 13:57	22%	5%	0.6%	91%worse than usual
MQ 3890 Envoy	BDL 18:28	ORD 20:12	24%	4%	1.1%	no record
UA 2627 United Flight history →	BDL 16:55	ORD 18:44	31%	7%	0.6%	63%
AA 1408 American Flight history →	BDL 13:04	ORD 14:39	39%	8%	1.0%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON