Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AA 3278 at 08:08, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 3278 BDL 08:08 → PHL 09:35 · 11% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 3278 American	BDL 08:08	PHL 09:35	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 6111 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	BDL 06:20	PHL 07:40	3%	0%	2.9%	97%
AA 5997 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	BDL 10:47	PHL 12:10	15%	3%	2.6%	85%
AA 5857 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	BDL 19:31	PHL 20:55	23%	9%	8.6%	77%
AA 6036 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	BDL 14:36	PHL 16:00	31%	12%	3.0%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON