Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: PT 6115 at 06:03 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–19%.

Safest bet that day PT 6115 BDL 06:03 → PHL 07:34 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest PT 5825 BDL 14:46 → PHL 16:18 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


PT 6115 Piedmont	BDL 06:03	PHL 07:34	8%	2%	1.1%	no record
AA 3278 American	BDL 08:08	PHL 09:35	12%	3%	0.7%	no record
PT 5823 Piedmont	BDL 10:45	PHL 12:20	13%	3%	1.1%	no record
AA 5811 American flown by Piedmont Flight history →	BDL 19:17	PHL 20:47	15%	5%	1.2%	74%
PT 5825 Piedmont	BDL 14:46	PHL 16:18	19%	4%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON