tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, B6 1475 at 14:15, with a 37% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
B6 1475 JetBlue Flight history → BDL 14:15 SJU 18:12 37% 13% 0.9% 65%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Juan on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → BDL 06:00 → IAD 07:26UA 635 1h 08m Dulles IAD 08:34 → SJU 12:34UA 2021 6h 34m 97% 81%
UnitedDetails → BDL 08:20 → IAH 11:10UA 1361 3h 53m Houston IAH 15:03 → SJU 20:38UA 701 12h 18m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → BDL 05:30 → DTW 07:25DL 2964 1h 10m Detroit DTW 08:35 → SJU 13:11DL 1913 7h 41m 96% 79%
DeltaDetails → BDL 08:24 → ATL 10:51DL 2233 2h 09m Atlanta ATL 13:00 → SJU 16:39DL 1946 8h 15m 99% 77%
DeltaDetails → BDL 06:00 → ATL 08:27DL 2933 1h 18m Atlanta ATL 09:45 → SJU 13:32DL 1882 7h 32m 97% 77%
UnitedDetails → BDL 06:09 → ORD 07:54UA 2672 1h 13m Chicago ORD 09:07 → SJU 14:48UA 1996 8h 39m 94% 75%
AmericanDetails → BDL 05:59 → MIA 09:18AA 412 2h 00m Miami MIA 11:18 → SJU 14:08AA 1613 8h 09m 98% 74%
DeltaDetails → BDL 13:59 → ATL 16:31DL 1082 2h 14m Atlanta ATL 18:45 → SJU 22:29DL 1861 8h 30m 96% 73%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON