Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 13:58, is the safest bet: 60% chance of reaching Tampa on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 440 Southwest	BDL 11:42	TPA 15:00	14%	3%	1.2%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	BDL 06:00 → IAD 07:26UA 635	1h 34m Dulles	IAD 09:00 → TPA 11:32UA 683	5h 32m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	BDL 05:30 → DTW 07:25DL 2964	2h 50m Detroit	DTW 10:15 → TPA 12:50DL 2587	7h 20m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	BDL 07:30 → ATL 09:56DL 2233	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 12:35 → TPA 14:08DL 1525	6h 38m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	BDL 13:15 → DTW 15:11DL 2163	3h 19m Detroit	DTW 18:30 → TPA 21:09DL 1355	7h 54m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	BDL 06:00 → ATL 08:27DL 2933	1h 38m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → TPA 11:37DL 1587	5h 37m	99%	83%
American Details →	BDL 06:20 → PHL 07:40AA 6111 · flown by Piedmont	1h 26m Philadelphia	PHL 09:06 → TPA 12:00AA 1981	5h 40m	100%	81%
United Details →	BDL 06:09 → ORD 07:54UA 2672	3h 25m Chicago	ORD 11:19 → TPA 15:12UA 1834	9h 03m	99%	78%
Delta Details →	BDL 12:24 → ATL 14:53DL 2951	2h 23m Atlanta	ATL 17:16 → TPA 18:49DL 1594	6h 25m	98%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
JetBlue Details →	BDL 08:00 → FLL 11:10B6 959	56m Fort Lauderdale	FLL 12:06 → TPA 13:21B6 1005	5h 21m	72%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON