tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 21–27% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 1874 American BGR 13:56 CLT 16:38 21% 8% 1.6% no record
AA 3019 American BGR 17:24 CLT 20:09 27% 9% 1.3% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → BGR 06:35 → ORD 08:34AA 3683 · flown by Envoy 3h 16m Chicago ORD 11:50 → CLT 14:54AA 3021 8h 19m 99% 72%
AmericanDetails → BGR 13:09 → LGA 14:56AA 4488 · flown by Republic 3h 26m New York LGA 18:22 → CLT 20:27AA 1942 7h 18m 99% 72%
DeltaDetails → BGR 16:14 → JFK 18:03DL 5151 · flown by Endeavor 2h 42m New York JFK 20:45 → CLT 22:49DL 5036 · flown by Endeavor 6h 35m 95% 69%
AmericanDetails → BGR 11:49 → PHL 13:46AA 6123 · flown by Piedmont 3h 17m Philadelphia PHL 17:03 → CLT 18:45AA 2074 6h 56m 98% 67%
DeltaDetails → BGR 13:52 → LGA 15:31DL 5254 · flown by Endeavor 1h 40m New York LGA 17:11 → CLT 18:58DL 5711 · flown by Republic 5h 06m 92% 67%
DeltaDetails → BGR 15:01 → ATL 18:00DL 2350 59m Atlanta ATL 18:59 → CLT 20:07DL 2132 5h 06m 83% 62%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BGR 12:11 → EWR 14:05UA 4166 · flown by GoJet 56m Newark EWR 15:01 → CLT 17:10UA 3533 · flown by Republic 4h 59m 73% 55%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON