Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: OH 5215 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–19%.

Safest bet that day OH 5215 BGR 07:00 → DCA 09:16 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2064 BGR 16:55 → DCA 19:10 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OH 5215 PSA	BGR 07:00	DCA 09:16	9%	4%	2.2%	no record
OH 5508 PSA	BGR 12:56	DCA 15:12	16%	7%	2.4%	no record
AA 2064 American Flight history →	BGR 16:55	DCA 19:10	19%	10%	1.0%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON