Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, UA 4166 at 12:11, with a 24% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


UA 4166 United flown by GoJet Flight history →	BGR 12:11	EWR 14:05	24%	8%	2.6%	77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BGR 15:01 → ATL 18:00DL 2350	3h 35m Atlanta	ATL 21:35 → EWR 23:46DL 2527	8h 45m	100%	68%
American Details →	BGR 06:35 → ORD 08:34AA 3683 · flown by Envoy	1h 37m Chicago	ORD 10:11 → EWR 13:35AA 2416	7h 00m	95%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON