Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4488 BGR 13:09 → LGA 14:56 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest YX 4353 BGR 16:07 → LGA 17:58 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4488 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BGR 13:09	LGA 14:56	15%	5%	1.5%	86%
YX 4353 Republic	BGR 16:07	LGA 17:58	17%	7%	2.3%	no record
DL 5137 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	BGR 05:20	LGA 06:59	12%	6%	4.7%	88%
DL 5254 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	BGR 12:03	LGA 13:44	20%	9%	4.6%	80%
DL 5010 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	BGR 17:01	LGA 18:44	32%	19%	9.3%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON