Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 2162 at 05:18 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–21%.

Safest bet that day DL 2162 BHM 05:18 → ATL 07:30 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest DL 2484 BHM 17:00 → ATL 19:07 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2162 Delta Flight history →	BHM 05:18	ATL 07:30	5%	2%	0.7%	95%
DL 3100 Delta Flight history →	BHM 09:04	ATL 11:05	7%	3%	1.2%	94%
DL 1618 Delta Flight history →	BHM 06:15	ATL 08:24	9%	3%	0.7%	89%
DL 1369 Delta Flight history →	BHM 07:35	ATL 09:40	12%	3%	0.9%	88%
DL 3012 Delta Flight history →	BHM 14:10	ATL 16:17	12%	5%	1.7%	88%
DL 1017 Delta Flight history →	BHM 12:03	ATL 14:08	12%	4%	3.1%	81%
DL 3163 Delta Flight history →	BHM 16:07	ATL 18:16	15%	5%	1.7%	76%
DL 2484 Delta Flight history →	BHM 17:00	ATL 19:07	21%	10%	3.8%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON