Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: WN 4777 at 05:27 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 4777 Southwest	BHM 05:27	BNA 06:24	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 451 Southwest	BHM 15:35	BNA 16:58	16%	5%	1.3%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BHM 05:18 → ATL 07:30DL 2162	3h 51m Atlanta	ATL 11:21 → BNA 11:30DL 2867	6h 12m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	BHM 06:15 → ATL 08:24DL 1618	1h 33m Atlanta	ATL 09:57 → BNA 10:09DL 1155	3h 54m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	BHM 06:25 → DTW 09:27DL 3006	2h 58m Detroit	DTW 12:25 → BNA 13:03DL 1557	6h 38m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	BHM 09:04 → ATL 11:05DL 3100	2h 49m Atlanta	ATL 13:54 → BNA 14:03DL 3159	4h 59m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	BHM 10:16 → DTW 13:20DL 3685 · flown by SkyWest	2h 41m Detroit	DTW 16:01 → BNA 16:40DL 2316	6h 24m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	BHM 17:00 → ATL 19:07DL 2484	3h 38m Atlanta	ATL 22:45 → BNA 22:58DL 3121	5h 58m	98%	75%
Delta Details →	BHM 14:10 → ATL 16:17DL 3012	3h 03m Atlanta	ATL 19:20 → BNA 19:38DL 1490	5h 28m	97%	75%
American Details →	BHM 08:16 → CLT 10:59AA 5253 · flown by PSA	2h 11m Charlotte	CLT 13:10 → BNA 13:39AA 538	5h 23m	93%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON