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Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:18, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Baltimore on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 1 h ahead of Birmingham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BHM 05:18 → ATL 07:30DL 2162 3h 45m Atlanta ATL 11:15 → BWI 13:07DL 2711 6h 49m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → BHM 09:04 → ATL 11:05DL 3100 2h 54m Atlanta ATL 13:59 → BWI 15:49DL 2799 5h 45m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → BHM 10:16 → DTW 13:20DL 3685 · flown by SkyWest 1h 49m Detroit DTW 15:09 → BWI 16:45DL 2480 5h 29m 92% 79%
DeltaDetails → BHM 12:03 → ATL 14:08DL 1017 3h 42m Atlanta ATL 17:50 → BWI 19:45DL 2928 6h 42m 98% 78%
UnitedDetails → BHM 07:18 → ORD 09:41UA 4449 · flown by GoJet 1h 10m Chicago ORD 10:51 → BWI 13:57UA 2653 5h 39m 92% 77%
DeltaDetails → BHM 06:25 → DTW 09:27DL 3006 48m Detroit DTW 10:15 → BWI 11:47DL 1546 4h 22m 83% 76%
DeltaDetails → BHM 14:10 → ATL 16:17DL 3012 3h 13m Atlanta ATL 19:30 → BWI 21:26DL 1257 6h 16m 97% 76%
AmericanDetails → BHM 08:16 → CLT 10:59AA 5253 · flown by PSA 1h 34m Charlotte CLT 12:33 → BWI 14:06AA 2733 4h 50m 90% 71%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON