Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 5253 at 08:16 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–26%.

Safest bet that day AA 5253 BHM 08:16 → CLT 10:59 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest OO 6350 BHM 17:17 → CLT 19:56 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5253 American flown by PSA Flight history →	BHM 08:16	CLT 10:59	10%	3%	2.5%	93%
OH 5048 PSA	BHM 06:55	CLT 09:44	11%	3%	1.1%	no record
OH 5068 PSA	BHM 10:31	CLT 13:07	14%	4%	3.3%	no record
OO 6270 SkyWest	BHM 12:42	CLT 15:22	18%	6%	4.4%	no record
OO 299 SkyWest	BHM 18:42	CLT 21:53	18%	12%	3.8%	no record
OH 5448 PSA	BHM 15:49	CLT 18:29	23%	7%	4.0%	no record
OO 6350 SkyWest	BHM 17:17	CLT 19:56	26%	11%	3.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON