tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OH 5648 PSA BHM 06:30 DCA 09:37 9% 4% 2.3% no record
OH 5121 PSA BHM 10:42 DCA 14:09 13% 6% 5.3% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Birmingham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BHM 05:18 → ATL 07:30DL 2162 3h 30m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → DCA 12:52DL 1798 6h 34m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → BHM 06:15 → ATL 08:24DL 1618 1h 16m Atlanta ATL 09:40 → DCA 11:27DL 380 4h 12m 96% 84%
DeltaDetails → BHM 06:00 → LGA 09:29DL 4977 · flown by Endeavor 2h 11m New York LGA 11:40 → DCA 13:05DL 5749 · flown by Republic 6h 05m 96% 82%
DeltaDetails → BHM 16:07 → ATL 18:16DL 3163 3h 43m Atlanta ATL 21:59 → DCA 23:52DL 537 6h 45m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → BHM 09:04 → ATL 11:05DL 3100 2h 04m Atlanta ATL 13:09 → DCA 14:56DL 360 4h 52m 99% 79%
AmericanDetails → BHM 05:27 → DFW 07:17AA 4186 · flown by Envoy 1h 33m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:50 → DCA 12:52AA 1177 6h 25m 94% 79%
UnitedDetails → BHM 07:18 → ORD 09:41UA 4449 · flown by GoJet 1h 34m Chicago ORD 11:15 → DCA 14:22UA 2668 6h 04m 95% 77%
DeltaDetails → BHM 14:10 → ATL 16:17DL 3012 2h 38m Atlanta ATL 18:55 → DCA 20:47DL 325 5h 37m 96% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → BHM 06:05 → MIA 09:07AA 3423 · flown by Envoy 53m Miami MIA 10:00 → DCA 12:49AA 1612 5h 44m 74% 60%
DeltaDetails → BHM 17:00 → ATL 19:07DL 2484 48m Atlanta ATL 19:55 → DCA 21:49DL 727 3h 49m 74% 55%
UnitedDetails → BHM 13:22 → ORD 15:45UA 4168 · flown by GoJet 1h 13m Chicago ORD 16:58 → DCA 19:57UA 2761 5h 35m 74% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON