Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 457 at 05:55 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 457 BHM 05:55 → DEN 08:08 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 460 BHM 16:45 → DEN 18:58 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 457 Southwest	BHM 05:55	DEN 08:08	6%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 5295 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BHM 08:10	DEN 10:35	10%	3%	1.0%	92%
UA 402 United	BHM 15:49	DEN 18:13	21%	7%	1.0%	no record
WN 460 Southwest	BHM 16:45	DEN 18:58	26%	5%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON