Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 4186 at 05:27 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–34%.

Safest bet that day AA 4186 BHM 05:27 → DFW 07:17 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest F9 9538 BHM 17:41 → DFW 19:53 · 34% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4186 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BHM 05:27	DFW 07:17	10%	3%	1.2%	94%
MQ 3410 Envoy	BHM 07:29	DFW 09:33	13%	4%	1.7%	no record
MQ 3361 Envoy	BHM 10:00	DFW 12:01	15%	4%	2.8%	no record
OH 5530 PSA	BHM 12:11	DFW 14:21	17%	8%	6.8%	no record
AA 5316 American flown by PSA Flight history →	BHM 16:41	DFW 18:54	23%	11%	6.5%	48%
MQ 4210 Envoy	BHM 15:25	DFW 17:23	25%	7%	2.3%	no record
F9 9538 Frontier	BHM 17:41	DFW 19:53	34%	18%	10.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON