Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 3006 Delta Flight history →	BHM 06:25	DTW 09:27	6%	3%	0.7%	95%
DL 3685 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BHM 10:16	DTW 13:20	15%	5%	1.9%	80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Detroit is 1 h ahead of Birmingham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BHM 05:18 → ATL 07:30DL 2162	3h 30m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → DTW 12:56DL 1240	6h 38m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	BHM 06:15 → ATL 08:24DL 1618	1h 21m Atlanta	ATL 09:45 → DTW 11:40DL 8861	4h 25m	96%	83%
Delta Details →	BHM 09:04 → ATL 11:05DL 3100	3h 05m Atlanta	ATL 14:10 → DTW 16:06DL 1031	6h 02m	100%	83%
United Details →	BHM 06:30 → IAH 08:30UA 4008 · flown by Mesa	1h 15m Houston	IAH 09:45 → DTW 13:42UA 4064 · flown by Mesa	6h 12m	91%	81%
Delta Details →	BHM 06:00 → LGA 09:29DL 4977 · flown by Endeavor	3h 26m New York	LGA 12:55 → DTW 14:51DL 1122	7h 51m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	BHM 12:03 → ATL 14:08DL 1017	3h 03m Atlanta	ATL 17:11 → DTW 19:14DL 2067	6h 11m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	BHM 11:10 → LGA 14:45DL 4936 · flown by Endeavor	2h 15m New York	LGA 17:00 → DTW 19:39DL 999	7h 29m	93%	79%
Delta Details →	BHM 14:10 → ATL 16:17DL 3012	3h 08m Atlanta	ATL 19:25 → DTW 21:26DL 1478	6h 16m	97%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON