Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 360 at 04:51, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 360 Southwest	BHM 04:51	HOU 06:44	5%	2%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BHM 05:18 → ATL 07:30DL 2162	1h 00m Atlanta	ATL 08:30 → HOU 09:34DL 1509	4h 16m	95%	81%
American Details →	BHM 05:27 → DFW 07:17AA 4186 · flown by Envoy	1h 45m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:02 → HOU 10:31AA 9754	5h 04m	94%	75%
Delta Details →	BHM 16:07 → ATL 18:16DL 3163	2h 29m Atlanta	ATL 20:45 → HOU 21:51DL 2051	5h 44m	95%	73%
Delta Details →	BHM 12:03 → ATL 14:08DL 1017	1h 04m Atlanta	ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381	4h 19m	89%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON