Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 4977 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	BHM 06:00	LGA 09:29	10%	5%	4.8%	90%
DL 4936 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	BHM 11:10	LGA 14:45	26%	10%	4.5%	74%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Birmingham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BHM 05:18 → ATL 07:30DL 2162	3h 00m Atlanta	ATL 10:30 → LGA 12:42DL 371	6h 24m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	BHM 06:25 → DTW 09:27DL 3006	2h 48m Detroit	DTW 12:15 → LGA 14:05DL 1669	6h 40m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	BHM 07:35 → ATL 09:40DL 1369	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 12:30 → LGA 14:50DL 525	6h 15m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	BHM 09:04 → ATL 11:05DL 3100	2h 25m Atlanta	ATL 13:30 → LGA 15:50DL 460	5h 46m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	BHM 16:07 → ATL 18:16DL 3163	2h 44m Atlanta	ATL 21:00 → LGA 23:24DL 520	6h 17m	96%	81%
Delta Details →	BHM 10:16 → DTW 13:20DL 3685 · flown by SkyWest	2h 36m Detroit	DTW 15:56 → LGA 17:45DL 2602	6h 29m	97%	77%
Delta Details →	BHM 12:03 → ATL 14:08DL 1017	2h 52m Atlanta	ATL 17:00 → LGA 19:27DL 997	6h 24m	96%	77%
Delta Details →	BHM 14:10 → ATL 16:17DL 3012	2h 43m Atlanta	ATL 19:00 → LGA 21:28DL 468	6h 18m	97%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	BHM 15:45 → MIA 18:53AA 3909 · flown by Envoy	1h 00m Miami	MIA 19:53 → LGA 22:57AA 2262	6h 12m	64%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON