Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 3488 at 16:00, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3488 Southwest	BHM 16:00	MDW 18:05	14%	4%	1.0%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BHM 05:18 → ATL 07:30DL 2162	2h 10m Atlanta	ATL 09:40 → MDW 10:42DL 2417	5h 24m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	BHM 09:04 → ATL 11:05DL 3100	3h 24m Atlanta	ATL 14:29 → MDW 15:30DL 1728	6h 26m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	BHM 06:25 → DTW 09:27DL 3006	2h 58m Detroit	DTW 12:25 → MDW 12:46DL 4688 · flown by Endeavor	6h 21m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	BHM 16:07 → ATL 18:16DL 3163	2h 59m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076	6h 08m	97%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON