Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: AA 3423 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 19% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 36%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 3423 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BHM 06:05	MIA 09:07	19%	5%	1.1%	91%
AA 3909 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BHM 15:45	MIA 18:53	36%	11%	1.6%	92%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 1 h ahead of Birmingham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BHM 05:18 → ATL 07:30DL 2162	1h 33m Atlanta	ATL 09:03 → MIA 11:03DL 1510	4h 45m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	BHM 06:15 → ATL 08:24DL 1618	2h 41m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → MIA 13:07DL 1332	5h 52m	98%	76%
Delta Details →	BHM 09:04 → ATL 11:05DL 3100	2h 30m Atlanta	ATL 13:35 → MIA 15:43DL 1323	5h 39m	99%	72%
Delta Details →	BHM 06:00 → LGA 09:29DL 4977 · flown by Endeavor	1h 46m New York	LGA 11:15 → MIA 14:24DL 1538	7h 24m	95%	70%
American Details →	BHM 06:00 → PHL 09:20AA 5218 · flown by PSA	2h 12m Philadelphia	PHL 11:32 → MIA 14:29AA 1989	7h 29m	95%	70%
Delta Details →	BHM 17:00 → ATL 19:07DL 2484	3h 46m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589	6h 55m	98%	68%
Delta Details →	BHM 12:03 → ATL 14:08DL 1017	3h 40m Atlanta	ATL 17:48 → MIA 19:44DL 719	6h 41m	98%	65%
Delta Details →	BHM 14:10 → ATL 16:17DL 3012	3h 36m Atlanta	ATL 19:53 → MIA 21:59DL 1588	6h 49m	98%	65%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	BHM 11:10 → LGA 14:45DL 4936 · flown by Endeavor	55m New York	LGA 15:40 → MIA 19:23DL 2300	7h 13m	71%	50%
Delta Details →	BHM 17:00 → ATL 19:07DL 2484	46m Atlanta	ATL 19:53 → MIA 21:59DL 1588	3h 59m	73%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON