Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AA 5218 at 06:00, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 5218 American flown by PSA Flight history →	BHM 06:00	PHL 09:20	10%	4%	1.3%	91%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 1 h ahead of Birmingham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BHM 05:18 → ATL 07:30DL 2162	2h 40m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → PHL 12:15DL 2279	5h 57m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	BHM 06:15 → ATL 08:24DL 1618	3h 51m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → PHL 14:15DL 2131	7h 00m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	BHM 09:04 → ATL 11:05DL 3100	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 13:55 → PHL 15:58DL 1692	5h 54m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	BHM 17:00 → ATL 19:07DL 2484	3h 49m Atlanta	ATL 22:56 → PHL 00:59 +1DL 2642	6h 59m	98%	78%
American Details →	BHM 05:27 → DFW 07:17AA 4186 · flown by Envoy	1h 18m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:35 → PHL 13:07AA 2255	6h 40m	94%	77%
Delta Details →	BHM 14:10 → ATL 16:17DL 3012	3h 24m Atlanta	ATL 19:41 → PHL 21:42DL 1174	6h 32m	98%	76%
United Details →	BHM 07:18 → ORD 09:41UA 4449 · flown by GoJet	1h 52m Chicago	ORD 11:33 → PHL 14:47UA 2182	6h 29m	96%	75%
Delta Details →	BHM 12:03 → ATL 14:08DL 1017	3h 37m Atlanta	ATL 17:45 → PHL 19:51DL 1329	6h 48m	98%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON