Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 2310 at 09:05, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2310 Southwest	BHM 09:05	TPA 11:45	9%	3%	2.3%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 1 h ahead of Birmingham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BHM 05:18 → ATL 07:30DL 2162	3h 40m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → TPA 12:39DL 1099	6h 21m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	BHM 06:15 → ATL 08:24DL 1618	1h 41m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → TPA 11:37DL 1587	4h 22m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	BHM 09:04 → ATL 11:05DL 3100	1h 30m Atlanta	ATL 12:35 → TPA 14:08DL 1525	4h 04m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	BHM 12:03 → ATL 14:08DL 1017	2h 10m Atlanta	ATL 16:18 → TPA 17:53DL 1425	4h 50m	96%	74%
United Details →	BHM 07:18 → ORD 09:41UA 4449 · flown by GoJet	1h 38m Chicago	ORD 11:19 → TPA 15:12UA 1834	6h 54m	95%	74%
American Details →	BHM 06:00 → PHL 09:20AA 5218 · flown by PSA	1h 19m Philadelphia	PHL 10:39 → TPA 13:40AA 2015	6h 40m	91%	74%
Delta Details →	BHM 17:00 → ATL 19:07DL 2484	3h 52m Atlanta	ATL 22:59 → TPA 00:29 +1DL 1560	6h 29m	98%	71%
Delta Details →	BHM 14:10 → ATL 16:17DL 3012	2h 05m Atlanta	ATL 18:22 → TPA 19:54DL 1457	4h 44m	95%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON