Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 3–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 5829 BIL 05:00 → DEN 06:53 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest UA 478 BIL 14:25 → DEN 16:15 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5829 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BIL 05:00	DEN 06:53	3%	2%	0.6%	95%
UA 372 United Flight history →	BIL 06:58	DEN 08:51	5%	2%	0.5%	91%
UA 5463 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BIL 10:40	DEN 12:32	6%	3%	0.6%	99%
OO 4643 SkyWest	BIL 18:00	DEN 19:59	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 478 United Flight history →	BIL 14:25	DEN 16:15	12%	4%	0.5%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON