Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: AA 3746 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 3746 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BIL 06:00	DFW 09:55	7%	3%	0.7%	91%
AA 4095 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BIL 13:17	DFW 17:00	17%	4%	0.9%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h ahead of Billings). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BIL 05:20 → SLC 06:44DL 1360	1h 11m Salt Lake City	SLC 07:55 → DFW 11:37DL 2798	5h 17m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	BIL 06:24 → MSP 09:27DL 2254	1h 33m Minneapolis	MSP 11:00 → DFW 13:31DL 2970	6h 07m	98%	87%
United Details →	BIL 05:00 → DEN 06:53UA 5829 · flown by SkyWest	2h 44m Denver	DEN 09:37 → DFW 12:40UA 1350	6h 40m	98%	84%
United Details →	BIL 10:40 → DEN 12:32UA 5463 · flown by SkyWest	1h 23m Denver	DEN 13:55 → DFW 17:01UA 578	5h 21m	96%	73%
Alaska Details →	BIL 06:00 → SEA 07:12AS 2247 · flown by Horizon	1h 26m Seattle	SEA 08:38 → DFW 14:28AS 321	7h 28m	96%	71%
United Details →	BIL 14:25 → DEN 16:15UA 478	2h 35m Denver	DEN 18:50 → DFW 21:56UA 1565	6h 31m	98%	65%
American Details →	BIL 12:32 → ORD 16:26AA 3498 · flown by Envoy	52m Chicago	ORD 17:18 → DFW 19:56AA 2499	6h 24m	77%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON