Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, DL 2254 at 06:24, with a 3% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 2254 Delta Flight history →	BIL 06:24	MSP 09:27	3%	2%	0.5%	92%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h ahead of Billings). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BIL 05:20 → SLC 06:44DL 1360	1h 46m Salt Lake City	SLC 08:30 → MSP 11:58DL 2916	5h 38m	99%	91%
United Details →	BIL 05:00 → DEN 06:53UA 5829 · flown by SkyWest	2h 47m Denver	DEN 09:40 → MSP 12:40UA 397	6h 40m	98%	88%
United Details →	BIL 10:40 → DEN 12:32UA 5463 · flown by SkyWest	1h 18m Denver	DEN 13:50 → MSP 16:54UA 732	5h 14m	96%	82%
United Details →	BIL 14:25 → DEN 16:15UA 478	1h 40m Denver	DEN 17:55 → MSP 21:00UA 2076	5h 35m	96%	77%
Alaska Details →	BIL 07:41 → SEA 08:59AS 2555 · flown by Horizon	2h 52m Seattle	SEA 11:51 → MSP 17:19AS 509	8h 38m	100%	74%
American Details →	BIL 06:00 → DFW 09:55AA 3746 · flown by Envoy	2h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:58 → MSP 14:32AA 1668	7h 32m	97%	71%
American Details →	BIL 13:17 → DFW 17:00AA 4095 · flown by Envoy	1h 51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:51 → MSP 21:21AA 2806	7h 04m	96%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON