Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:24, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching Chicago on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 3498 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BIL 12:32	ORD 16:26	22%	4%	0.6%	67%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h ahead of Billings). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	BIL 05:00 → DEN 06:53UA 5829 · flown by SkyWest	51m Denver	DEN 07:44 → ORD 11:21UA 1928	5h 21m	95%	84%
Delta Details →	BIL 05:20 → SLC 06:44DL 1360	1h 06m Salt Lake City	SLC 07:50 → ORD 12:00DL 2247	5h 40m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	BIL 06:24 → MSP 09:27DL 2254	3h 58m Minneapolis	MSP 13:25 → ORD 15:05DL 1533	7h 41m	99%	82%
United Details →	BIL 06:58 → DEN 08:51UA 372	2h 24m Denver	DEN 11:15 → ORD 14:55UA 2865	6h 57m	99%	79%
United Details →	BIL 14:25 → DEN 16:15UA 478	2h 55m Denver	DEN 19:10 → ORD 22:49UA 2258	7h 24m	99%	76%
Alaska Details →	BIL 06:00 → SEA 07:12AS 2247 · flown by Horizon	1h 22m Seattle	SEA 08:34 → ORD 14:46AS 265	7h 46m	96%	72%
Delta Details →	BIL 11:50 → SLC 13:22DL 4038 · flown by SkyWest	3h 48m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:10 → ORD 21:20DL 2413	8h 30m	100%	71%
United Details →	BIL 10:40 → DEN 12:32UA 5463 · flown by SkyWest	2h 29m Denver	DEN 15:01 → ORD 18:46UA 1023	7h 06m	100%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON