Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 4730 at 12:30, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4730 Southwest	BNA 12:30	ABQ 14:45	12%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Albuquerque on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Albuquerque is 1 h behind Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BNA 14:51 → LAX 17:02DL 355	3h 21m Los Angeles	LAX 20:23 → ABQ 23:31DL 4098 · flown by SkyWest	9h 40m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	BNA 10:03 → MSP 12:14DL 2724	3h 01m Minneapolis	MSP 15:15 → ABQ 16:54DL 730	7h 51m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	BNA 17:00 → SLC 19:36DL 2205	1h 19m Salt Lake City	SLC 20:55 → ABQ 22:40DL 3729 · flown by SkyWest	6h 40m	93%	86%
United Details →	BNA 15:57 → DEN 18:04UA 1766	2h 58m Denver	DEN 21:02 → ABQ 22:30UA 5880 · flown by SkyWest	7h 33m	95%	85%
Delta Details →	BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637	1h 39m Atlanta	ATL 09:00 → ABQ 10:20DL 1004	6h 10m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	BNA 09:48 → ATL 12:00DL 3069	1h 49m Atlanta	ATL 13:49 → ABQ 15:07DL 1109	6h 19m	98%	84%
American Details →	BNA 06:28 → PHL 09:39AA 2809	1h 13m Philadelphia	PHL 10:52 → ABQ 13:04AA 2127	7h 36m	92%	83%
United Details →	BNA 08:12 → DEN 10:17UA 1716	3h 13m Denver	DEN 13:30 → ABQ 14:57UA 1594	7h 45m	99%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	BNA 08:40 → IAH 11:02UA 4005 · flown by Mesa	1h 02m Houston	IAH 12:04 → ABQ 13:27UA 6345 · flown by Mesa	5h 47m	71%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON