Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 371 at 05:12 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–19%.

Safest bet that day WN 371 BNA 05:12 → AUS 07:35 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 3960 BNA 17:48 → AUS 20:22 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 371 Southwest	BNA 05:12	AUS 07:35	2%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 477 Southwest	BNA 07:55	AUS 10:29	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2372 Southwest	BNA 00:03	AUS 02:16	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 4146 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BNA 07:05	AUS 09:31	10%	4%	0.6%	87%
WN 479 Southwest	BNA 12:25	AUS 14:54	13%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1458 Southwest	BNA 20:05	AUS 22:34	17%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 3960 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	BNA 17:48	AUS 20:22	19%	6%	0.7%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON