Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 146 at 12:05, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 146 Southwest	BNA 12:05	BDL 15:34	11%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hartford on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Hartford is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BNA 06:00 → MSP 08:10DL 2221	2h 06m Minneapolis	MSP 10:16 → BDL 13:52DL 2007	6h 52m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	BNA 06:05 → DTW 08:46DL 2439	1h 45m Detroit	DTW 10:31 → BDL 12:15DL 2163	5h 10m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	BNA 16:00 → MSP 18:14DL 2843	1h 46m Minneapolis	MSP 20:00 → BDL 23:39DL 2871	6h 39m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637	1h 51m Atlanta	ATL 09:12 → BDL 11:34DL 1082	5h 24m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	BNA 07:20 → ATL 09:30DL 2802	3h 25m Atlanta	ATL 12:55 → BDL 15:14DL 2739	6h 54m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	BNA 10:15 → DTW 12:55DL 2682	1h 40m Detroit	DTW 14:35 → BDL 16:18DL 2814	5h 03m	96%	83%
Delta Details →	BNA 10:54 → ATL 13:04DL 1155	3h 21m Atlanta	ATL 16:25 → BDL 18:50DL 2735	6h 56m	99%	80%
American Details →	BNA 05:16 → ORD 07:11AA 4964 · flown by SkyWest	1h 36m Chicago	ORD 08:47 → BDL 12:18AA 1408	6h 02m	96%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON