tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 18–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3488 Southwest BNA 14:30 BHM 15:36 18% 4% 1.2% no record
WN 4923 Southwest BNA 20:00 BHM 21:06 20% 5% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Birmingham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637 59m Atlanta ATL 08:20 → BHM 08:15DL 3100 3h 05m 95% 87%
DeltaDetails → BNA 06:18 → ATL 08:30DL 3001 2h 45m Atlanta ATL 11:15 → BHM 11:10DL 1017 4h 52m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → BNA 09:48 → ATL 12:00DL 3069 1h 32m Atlanta ATL 13:32 → BHM 13:25DL 3012 3h 37m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → BNA 10:54 → ATL 13:04DL 1155 2h 00m Atlanta ATL 15:04 → BHM 15:05DL 3163 4h 11m 97% 80%
AmericanDetails → BNA 06:01 → DFW 08:20AA 2787 1h 28m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:48 → BHM 11:54AA 5530 · flown by PSA 5h 53m 96% 78%
DeltaDetails → BNA 14:51 → ATL 17:04DL 3159 1h 55m Atlanta ATL 18:59 → BHM 19:01DL 3044 4h 10m 92% 74%
DeltaDetails → BNA 12:38 → ATL 14:50DL 2867 1h 05m Atlanta ATL 15:55 → BHM 15:52DL 2484 3h 14m 89% 71%
UnitedDetails → BNA 08:12 → DEN 10:17UA 1716 54m Denver DEN 11:11 → BHM 14:58UA 447 6h 46m 85% 69%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → BNA 18:37 → MIA 21:59AA 323 57m Miami MIA 22:56 → BHM 23:59AA 3427 · flown by Envoy 5h 22m 68% 56%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON