Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 2509 at 07:10 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–32%.

Safest bet that day DL 2509 BNA 07:10 → BOS 10:48 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest B6 406 BNA 16:57 → BOS 20:33 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2509 Delta Flight history →	BNA 07:10	BOS 10:48	7%	2%	0.6%	90%
B6 806 JetBlue Flight history →	BNA 06:01	BOS 09:39	9%	3%	0.8%	93%
WN 4999 Southwest	BNA 10:25	BOS 13:55	15%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 2141 Delta Flight history →	BNA 12:25	BOS 16:15	17%	4%	0.6%	79%
B6 1806 JetBlue Flight history →	BNA 09:12	BOS 12:49	17%	4%	0.8%	67%
WN 3951 Southwest	BNA 18:00	BOS 21:44	27%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 488 Southwest	BNA 13:00	BOS 16:39	27%	4%	0.6%	no record
B6 406 JetBlue	BNA 16:57	BOS 20:33	32%	11%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON