Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: WN 378 at 10:10 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 378 Southwest	BNA 10:10	BUF 13:11	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 420 Southwest	BNA 17:50	BUF 20:51	21%	6%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Buffalo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Buffalo is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637	1h 49m Atlanta	ATL 09:10 → BUF 11:11DL 1384	5h 01m	97%	83%
JetBlue Details →	BNA 06:01 → BOS 09:39B6 806	2h 26m Boston	BOS 12:05 → BUF 13:52B6 915	6h 51m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	BNA 07:21 → JFK 10:57DL 4916 · flown by Endeavor	2h 41m New York	JFK 13:38 → BUF 15:16DL 5296 · flown by Endeavor	6h 55m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	BNA 09:48 → ATL 12:00DL 3069	2h 10m Atlanta	ATL 14:10 → BUF 16:13DL 2266	5h 25m	98%	78%
American Details →	BNA 08:30 → CLT 10:58AA 966	3h 00m Charlotte	CLT 13:58 → BUF 15:49AA 2442	6h 19m	97%	74%
Delta Details →	BNA 17:40 → DTW 20:24DL 2316	1h 11m Detroit	DTW 21:35 → BUF 22:45DL 978	4h 05m	89%	72%
American Details →	BNA 09:09 → ORD 10:56AA 2500	3h 38m Chicago	ORD 14:34 → BUF 17:28AA 3013	7h 19m	100%	66%
American Details →	BNA 07:04 → DFW 09:19AA 2583	2h 39m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 11:58 → BUF 16:06AA 1724	8h 02m	99%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON