Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 17:00, is the safest bet: 74% chance of reaching Burbank on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 55% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4469 Southwest	BNA 08:50	BUR 11:31	10%	2%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 2 h behind Nashville). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BNA 05:10 → ATL 07:21DL 2637	3h 59m Atlanta	ATL 11:20 → BUR 12:56DL 483	9h 46m	99%	77%
United Details →	BNA 08:02 → SFO 10:59UA 626	2h 51m San Francisco	SFO 13:50 → BUR 15:17UA 626	9h 15m	98%	74%
Delta Details →	BNA 17:00 → SLC 19:36DL 2205	1h 14m Salt Lake City	SLC 20:50 → BUR 21:48DL 339	6h 48m	92%	74%
United Details →	BNA 08:12 → DEN 10:17UA 1716	58m Denver	DEN 11:15 → BUR 12:48UA 2154	6h 36m	87%	72%
American Details →	BNA 06:01 → DFW 08:20AA 2787	2h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:24 → BUR 11:49AA 1208	7h 48m	97%	72%
Alaska Details →	BNA 07:02 → SEA 10:04AS 281	3h 14m Seattle	SEA 13:18 → BUR 15:48AS 529	10h 46m	100%	70%
United Details →	BNA 15:57 → DEN 18:04UA 1766	1h 06m Denver	DEN 19:10 → BUR 20:40UA 8140	6h 43m	78%	60%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	BNA 07:02 → SEA 10:04AS 281	50m Seattle	SEA 10:54 → BUR 13:28AS 1395	8h 26m	55%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON